This article is part of a collection of short essays written by the Fellows of the Middle East Institute to explore aspects of the ongoing war with Iran. The intent of the collection is to help readers see new and unexpected elements of the dynamics and impact of the ongoing hostilities and to think harder, deeper, and broader about the implications of the conflict.
Egypt: How the Iran War Has Affected Egypt’s Calculations
Egypt, which is not party to the war on Iran, has become a target as well as an intermediary in the conflict. As a result, the war has affected Egypt’s future calculations, particularly in three major areas: its economy, its security, and its regional alliances.
Algeria and Morocco have long been at odds, but recent diplomatic moves may signal a widening geopolitical split in North Africa. Hosts Alistair Taylor and Matthew Czekaj are joined by MEI Senior Fellow Intissar Fakir to unpack Algeria’s decision to sever diplomatic ties with the United Arab Emirates and Morocco’s warming relations with both the UAE and Israel. They also explore linkages between these diplomatic shifts and the Western Sahara conflict, Moroccan domestic concerns, particularly in light of this week’s elections, as well as broader regional stability.
Tunisia’s current system of government is by all indicators continuing to move even farther away from a liberal democratic form envisioned in the 2014 constitution. This is particularly true in the post-July 25, 2021 period after President Kais Saied suspended parliament and assumed full executive and legislative powers. However, analyses that focus solely on Saied miss some of the broader social and political trends that were already rejecting the way Tunisia’s post-2011 “democratic transition” has unfolded. They also miss the nexus that has converged to maintain the current system, in particular between security forces, some sycophantic media, and key figures within the political, business, and civil service sectors.
Algeria, Morocco and Western Sahara: Why Tension, Not Conflict, Has Become the Norm
During an interview on 29 December with the French daily Le Figaro, Algerian President Abdelmadjid Tebboune declared that his country had cut ties with Morocco in the summer of 2021 to “avoid war.”[i] Tebboune’s comments reflected just how far relations had deteriorated, and that avoiding conflict required a strong response. Hence, the diplomatic break of August 2021. What has resulted in this bilateral nadir?
Egyptian government walks risky economic tightrope to fulfill its loan conditions to IMF
As a condition of its $3 billion loan from the IMF, the Egyptian Central Bank confirmed its pledge to maintain a durably flexible exchange rate. The Egyptian pound quickly and sharply dropped, but economists are cautiously optimistic that Egypt can sustain the current crisis and repay its debts. The government is walking a tight rope, attempting to raise revenues and attract investments without exacerbating the tough living conditions at home.
The Middle East in an era of great tech competition
With the acute impacts of US-Chinese global tech decoupling becoming clearer, MENA is slowly emerging as an important region to watch. Economic and geopolitical ties with the West have long dictated the shape of the region’s digital environment, but more recent great power competition and Middle Eastern countries’ pursuit of economic and technological sovereignty have slowly deconstructed these dynamics.
Politics and Civic Engagement in North Africa: Present Trends and Future Outlook
In the North Africa and Middle East region, there is a battle for citizenship currently lurking behind the façade of a reemerging authoritarianism. Indeed, in most cases, the revolutions and transitions that spread across North Africa and the Middle East since 2011 have crystalized into resurgent authoritarian regimes that target freedoms and liberties and reverse political openings, while still contending with the economic and governance crises. But this is only one layer.
North Africa and the Sahel Program Director Intissar Fakir speaks to Alberto Rizzi – pan-European fellow at the Rome Office of the European Council on Foreign Relations – about existing and future energy partnerships between the European Union and the Maghreb. In the wake of energy market disruption caused by the conflict in Ukraine, what alternative fuel sources are the EU looking towards – and how does this align with current production capacities in Maghreb countries?
Eastern Mediterranean gas discoveries, progress, and what to watch in 2023
The challenge of developing export strategies for the offshore natural gas resources concentrated in the Eastern Mediterranean predates the Russo-Ukrainian war. Yet over the course of 2022, Europe’s intensifying energy crisis created a new and more immediate incentive to solve those export challenges, despite a great deal of work still to be done.
The oldest peer-reviewed publication dedicated to the study of the modern Middle East, MEI’s flagship journal covers politics, society, and culture in the region.
