Summary
This collection of short essays written by the Fellows of the Middle East Institute explores various aspects of the war with Iran. The intent is to help readers see new and unexpected elements of the dynamics and impact of the ongoing hostilities and to think harder, deeper, and broader about the implications of the conflict.

Contents
Preface
Kenneth M. Pollack
China: From Access to Exposure
John Calabrese
Egypt: How the Iran War Has Affected Cairo’s Calculations
Mirette F. Mabrouk
Gulf: The War Has Shaken Relations With Washington
Daniel Benaim
Gulf AI: The War as a Catalyst for Deepening Regional-US Strategic Tech Cooperation
Mohammed Soliman
Gulf Energy Markets: The Region’s Edge Will Survive — At a Price
Colby Connelly
Gulf Political Economy: The Cost of Accommodating Iran
Karen E. Young
Iranian Domestic Politics: Who Is Really in Charge in Tehran Now?
Alex Vatanka
Iran’s Strategic Thinking: Lessons Learned and What Comes Next
Ross Harrison
Iraq: Between Iran and a Hard Place
Kenneth M. Pollack
Israel: Strategic Divergence and Weakened Deterrence
Natan Sachs
Israel/Palestine: What the Iran War Broke and What May Yet Be Salvaged
Lucy Kurtzer-Ellenbogen & Jaser AbuMousa
Lebanon: Where the Axis of Resistance Breaks First
Fadi Nicholas Nassar
NATO: Time for a Europe-US Transatlantic Security Bargain
Iulia Joja
North Africa: Connectivity Without Resilience
Intissar Fakir
Syria: Opportunity Amid Regional Adversity
Charles Lister
Turkey: Ankara’s Nuclear Ambitions in the Post-Iran War Environment
Gönül Tol
US Regional Defense Policy: Strategic Prioritization and the Promotion of Collective Defense
Jason H. Campbell
US Regional Foreign Policy: Unforced Diplomatic Errors Risk Accelerating American Retrenchment
Brian Katulis
Yemen: The Houthis’ Role in the Next Evolution of the Axis of Resistance
Nadwa Al-Dawsari & Arman Mahmoudian
Preface
This report presents a collection of short essays written by the Fellows of the Middle East Institute to explore aspects of the ongoing war with Iran that have received less attention than they merit. This is not to say that the coverage of the war has been insufficient or misguided. Only that, as experts on the Middle East, we see this war having impacts well beyond what even a ceaseless, ubiquitous news cycle can cover.
Our charge in fashioning these essays was to help readers see new and unexpected elements of the dynamics and impact of the ongoing hostilities. Some highlight unrecognized ways that the war is shaping different parts of the world. Some place its events in a different context. Some point out potential pitfalls or opportunities deep into the future, while others illustrate immediate issues that have been hidden by the explosive storylines that understandably monopolize attention. All of them present new insights into aspects of the conflict that illuminate it more fully than it has been so far.
There is no unified perspective or overarching theme to these essays except the implicit consensus that the impact of the war is likely to reverberate across the Middle East and the world in unexpected ways for many years to come. To some extent, that is the nature of all interstate conflicts. However, the current war with Iran has been exceptional in this respect both because of the salience of the countries waging it and the relevance of its central issues to so many nations around the world. The war is bound up with questions regarding the global energy supply, the security of key transportation chokepoints, nuclear proliferation, the emergence of new military technologies, the changing distribution of power across the globe, and the utility of force in the information age. Even countries very far from the principal theater of combat have both direct and indirect interests in each of these matters, making this war potentially far more important than the number of combatants or casualties alone might suggest.
We hope these essays both help and challenge you to think harder, deeper, and broader about the implications of this long, strange, new war.
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Kenneth M. Pollack
Vice President for Policy, Middle East Institute
September 15, 2026
About the Middle East Institute
The Middle East Institute is a center of knowledge dedicated to narrowing divides between the peoples of the Middle East and the United States. With over 70 years’ experience, MEI has established itself as a credible, nonpartisan source of insight and policy analysis on all matters concerning the Middle East. MEI is distinguished by its holistic approach to the region and its deep understanding of the Middle East’s political, economic and cultural contexts. Through the collaborative work of its three centers — Policy & Research, Arts & Culture, and Education — MEI provides current and future leaders with the resources necessary to build a future of mutual understanding.
الاستقلال الفكري
MEI maintains strict intellectual independence in all of its projects and publications. MEI as an organization does not adopt or advocate positions on particular issues, nor does it accept funding that seeks to influence the opinions or conclusions of its scholars. Instead, it serves as a convener and forum for discussion and debate, and it regularly publishes and presents a variety of views. All work produced or published by MEI represents solely the opinions and views of its scholars.
US Regional Foreign Policy: Unforced Diplomatic Errors Risk Accelerating American Retrenchment
US Regional Defense Policy: Strategic Prioritization and the Promotion of Collective Defense

