Nearly two months into the Iran war, US President Donald Trump has announced an indefinite extension of the cease-fire between Washington and Tehran, even as control of the Strait of Hormuz remains contested. Hosts Alistair Taylor and Matthew Czekaj are joined by MEI Senior Fellow Alex Vatanka to explore where the conflict may be headed and unpack the factors at play. They discuss how Iran’s internal power structures have shifted since February 28, the prospects for a deal between Washington and Tehran, and what form a resumption of hostilities could take.
The opposition in Congress is attempting to force a war powers vote on the Trump administration’s Iran operation, with an eye toward the 60-day deadline on military action legally imposed on the executive branch; and key defense-spending measures are also on the immediate horizon. These actions on Capitol Hill could shape the trajectory of how the US moves forward in Iran and the region — and influence Americans’ overall appetite for long-term engagement in the Middle East.
As Lebanese, Israeli, and American teams prepare for their first-ever trilateral leaders summit, it is time to reflect on this opportunity and lessons from the past.
The war with the US and Israel has intensified pressure on the Iranian economy, but it has not represented a fundamentally new shock. The key question is not whether pressure exists, but whether it can be made decisive.
Bonus Episode: Stalled Talks and Next Steps for the US and Iran
This bonus episode of Middle East Focus features a recent MEI Virtual Briefing. Director of Communications Zeina Al-Shaib is joined by MEI Distinguished Diplomatic Fellows Alan Eyre and Daniel Benaim to discuss the historic talks held in Pakistan last weekend between the United States and Iran. Tehran insists the US failed to gain its trust, while the US made its red lines clear and declared it would blockade Iranian ports in the Persian Gulf. What happens next? Eyre and Benaim offer insights into what goes on behind the scenes at such negotiations; identify the core issues at play; explore potential incentives to end the war; analyze the weaponization of energy; as well as assess the role of other regional players in this conflict.
Israel’s killings of Ali Larijani and Kamal Kharazi were meant to do more than remove two senior figures from the Islamic Republic’s political landscape. And yet the regime did not break.
As the international community focuses on the regional and economic reverberations of the US-Israel-Iran war, the wartime experiences of ordinary Iranians and their aspirations for the future have received much less attention. Arash Azizi, a postdoctoral associate at Yale University and contributing writer at The Atlantic, joins hosts Alistair Taylor and Matthew Czekaj to discuss the war’s repercussions for the Iranian population and how the outcome of the conflict may shape the peoples’ lives going forward. Together, they explore Iran’s internal politics, the viability of the opposition, and the conditions needed to achieve democracy in Iran.
In the midst of a fragile cease-fire to the US-Israeli war on Iran, European leaders remain reluctant to get involved in another Middle Eastern war and are bristling under threats and insults from the US. As the NATO alliance frays and Russian attacks on Ukraine continue, the moment for Europe to take action has arrived, and is fleeting.
Turkey Sees Short-Term Pain, Long-Term Gain in the Iran War
The Iran war has posed significant immediate challenges for Turkey, including rising energy prices. But Turkish officials think that Ankara could reap benefits from the war in the long term.
American Bases in the Gulf: Targets or Deterrents?
Did the presence of American military bases in the Gulf monarchies draw those states into the American-Israeli war against Iran, a war they had no say in initiating and no voice in prosecuting? That is certainly the feeling among some citizens of those states.
Nazanin Boniadi: How the World Can Help Iran’s Democratic Struggle
Just weeks before President Trump’s war began, Iran was in the midst of a powerful wave of anti-regime protests spreading across the country. But once the war started, that momentum largely came to a halt. The conflict shifted the focus from dissent to survival and gave the regime an opening to crack down harder. With tighter controls, heightened fear, and everyday life suddenly more precarious, people pulled back from the streets. The protests may have paused, but the resentments that fueled them haven’t gone anywhere.
